Alternatives to the Strait Ormuz will not stop the escalation of war in the Middle East

The bitter search for alternatives to the Ormuz Strait shows one thing: the world reacts to the effects rather than trying to stop the cause of the crisis. The pipelines bypassing the Persian Gulf, new transhipment terminals, or concepts of building further transport routes may reduce the effects of the crisis, but will not solve the problem that remains of war and its political consequences.

Today there is no infrastructure capable of taking over the role of the Strait of Ormuz. This narrow pass passes through a significant part of world oil and gas supply. Even the most ambitious pipeline projects in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Iraq are unable to take over the entire volume. This means that any major disruption of navigation in this area automatically translates into fuel prices, transport costs and energy security of importing countries.

Therefore, the discussion of routes bypassing the Ormuz Strait cannot end on pipelines and terminals. Policy and further remain the source of the crisis The escalation of war.

In this sense, the best alternative to the Ormuz Strait is not another pipeline, but a halt to armed actions that raise risks to shipping, energy and global trade.

Alternatives to the Ormuz Strait – an overview of possible routes

As the portal points out In its analysis of alternatives to the Ormuz Strait, the countries of the region have been preparing solutions that partially reduce dependence on this narrow transport route. However, these are not solutions capable of fully replacing its meaning.

One of the key elements of the infrastructure is the Saudi East–West pipeline, connecting oil fields located in the eastern part of the country to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. Its maximum capacity is approximately 7 million barrels a day, but in practice it is used at a lower level. The raw material exported from Yanbu can then be channelled through the Suez Canal to Europe or through the Strait Bab al-Mandad towards Asia. However, this second option involves the risk of attacks on shipping, which have already been recorded in the Yemeni region in recent years.

The second important solution is the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline pipeline (ADCOP), leading from the oil fields in Habshan to the port of Fujairah over the Oman Gulf. This installation allows exports of oil with the omission of the Ormuz Strait, but its capacity – estimated at about 1.5-1.8 million barrels per day – remains limited to the total volumes transported by the region.

The analysis also identified northern Iraq export routes leading to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea. This route, although operating for years, has recently been limited by political tensions and technical problems. New infrastructure investments, including pipelines leading to ports in Oman and Jordan, are also considered, but most of these projects remain at the planning stage or early concepts.

Onet points out that despite the existence of these alternatives, none of them are currently able to take over the entire transport traffic carried out by the Ormuz Strait. Capacity limitations, threats safety and high investment costs make the region largely dependent on the functioning of this strategic route.

An overview of the routes bypassing the Ormuz Strait shows that the region has a certain supply of infrastructure, but there is no solution that could replace this route on a full scale. Pipelines and terminals may reduce the impact of the crisis but will not remove its source. Armed action and further escalation of the conflict remain this source.

A war that destabilizes world trade

It should not be overlooked that the current escalation does not only concern the Middle East region. Its effects are felt in Europe, Asia and global markets. The rise in energy prices, threats to shipping and the risk of tanker attacks are the real consequences of conflicts that take place thousands of kilometres from European ports.

In practice, this means that countries which do not participate directly in armed actions bear their economic costs. This applies to both oil and gas importers and shipowners, port operators and the entire logistics sector.

Therefore, the question is increasingly raised as to whether, instead of preparing further scenarios to bypass the Ormuz Strait, allied states should not use political tools to reduce the escalation of the conflict.

Allies have the right to say "enough"

Western security structures are not merely passive observers. They have political, economic and diplomatic tools that can put pressure on the parties to the conflict. This also applies to relations with United Stateswho remain a key actor in the region.

In a situation where the effects of war hit world trade and energy security in many countries, it seems natural to expect allies to object to actions leading to further destabilisation. This is not about breaking relationships or undermining alliances, but about clearly defining the limits of acceptable risks.

From the perspective of European countries, it is particularly important to avoid a scenario where regional conflicts lead to global economic crises.

Background of a conflict that cannot be overlooked

The current crisis around the Strait of Ormuz cannot be separated from the wider situation in the Middle East, including Israel's actions towards the Palestinians. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights stated that since October 2023 at least 964 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli and Jewish troops. According to OHCHR, about 30,000 people were displaced and nearly 3,000 homes were demolished.

The UN draws attention to the intensification of killings, attacks and harassment of Palestinians on the occupied West Bank. The expansion of Jewish settlements is particularly important here, which the international community considers to be contrary to international law. Their development means taking over land, displaceing residents and perpetuating a system in which Palestinians and settlers live under separate legal orders.

This is not a background far from maritime affairs. As the Israeli-Palestinian conflict expands politically and militarily, its effects include the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Ormuz Strait and Bab al-Mandab. Shipowners, port operators, insurers, energy importers and fuel users in Europe and Asia are affected.

Therefore, conflicts treated over the years as regional are increasingly global. This is particularly true when political tensions are beginning to affect shipping security and the stability of global supply chains.

Alternative infrastructure won't stop the war

Thinking about pipelines, terminals and new maritime routes is undoubtedly needed because it increases the resilience of the energy system and can reduce the effects of crises. However, this does not change the fact that no infrastructure investment will replace policy decisions leading to completion armed actions.

Therefore, instead of merely seeking answers to the question "what is it instead of the Strait of Ormuz?", it is worth putting other questions: how to lead to a situation where global trade is not dependent on political and military conflicts.

Because the real alternative to Ormuz is not a new pipeline. The real alternative is to end a war that pays no one.