American duties are entering into force. Will they cause a crisis?

On the night of April 4th, the Donald Trump administration introduced 10% duties on almost all goods imported to the US. This decision has created confusion in global markets and may particularly affect the maritime industry and international logistics. Is this the beginning of a new economic crisis, or is this just part of the hard negotiations that Washington is negotiating?

In the article

The introduction by the Donald Trump administration of 10% tariffs on almost all goods imported to the United States is an unprecedented event in the recent history of world trade. The announcement of further raising average rates to more than 20% poses a real threat to the stability of global markets.It's not justMedia scare – there is a risk that other countries will respond with their own tariffs. But it's not all settled yet. Much depends on how far the biggest players will go and whether someone decides to press the brake in time.

Impact on the maritime sector and logistics

Forecasts on possible problems for maritime transport and logistics are unfortunately quite likely. Maritime transport, which operates more than 90% of world trade, is very sensitive to fluctuations in demand and new customs barriers. Even a slight drop in demand from the US could mean less voyagehigher freight prices and chaos in shipping planning.

On the other hand, this industry already has experience in dealing with crises. After the COVID-19 pandemic and problems resulting from the war in Ukraine, the maritime sector learned to react quickly. It can be assumed, therefore, that this time it will also be possible to adapt, although probably not without cost.

European context – including Poland

The situation in Europe, including Poland, is unclear. Yes, smaller trade from the US can hit container terminals in Gdańsk and Gdynia, which in recent years have strongly placed on transatlantic transport.

However, on the other hand, the role of Baltic ports in trade with Asia is increasing, especially withChinaand South Korea. If European companies effectively switch to new trade directions, some losses can be recovered. Much depends on how the European Union responds - if it responds with equally harsh duties, the effects can be much more serious for logistics.

Are we facing a repeat of the Great Depression?

Frequent comparisons of current duties with the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act, which exacerbated the Great Depression, although pictorial, require caution. Today's international trade is much more integrated and global economies have more effective crisis management instruments and rapid remodelingsupply chains.

Although there is a considerable risk of short-term problems in world trade, we are unlikely to face a major crisis similar to the 1930s. Today's economies are better prepared so they can react faster and avoid the worst consequences.

Political U.S. Administration Game

President Trump's actions have a clear political context. The aggressive introduction of tariffs should be seen as a negotiating strategy rather than a permanent US economic policy. There is a real possibility that duties will be relaxed after the United States has obtained adequate concessions from key partners such as China and the European Union.

In this light, some alarming forecasts may be exaggerated and the final outcome will depend largely on the negotiation process. However, in the event of their failure, the consequences may be significant and permanently alter the global trade landscape.

Summary

The introduction of new duties by the US is a serious blow to the fragile balance of global trade, especially in the short term. For the maritime and international logistics sectors, this could mean a period of turbulence, forcing rapid adaptation to new realities.Though the phantomThe 1930s replays still appear to be unrealistic, growing political and economic tensions make you hold your hand on the pulse. The final scenario will write the negotiations – and it is their result that will determine whether the world will move towards the escalation of trade barriers or find a path of agreement.

Written by Mariusz Dasiewicz