Ship movement in the Ormuz Strait in the shadow of sanctions. In the background, Iran's shadow float

Data from ship traffic monitoring companies indicate that units connected to so-called Iranian shadow floats and tankers controlled by shipowners associated with Greece are currently primarily moving through the Ormuz Strait. At the same time, the total volume of oil transport through this strategic route fell by about 90 percent.

According to Lloyd List Intelligence, some 44-45 ships have passed through the Strait since the beginning of the month. Compared to the typical level of traffic, this represents a decrease in tonnage by up to 90 percent.

Such a clear reduction in shipping in the region shows that many shipowners refrain from taking the risk of transition by water, which remains one of the most sensitive points in the global energy raw material transport system.

Greek tankers among the most numerous units

According to Lloyd List Intelligence data, among ships currently passing in the Gulf waters towards the Strait of Ormuz a significant group are entities associated with Greek shipowners.

These are primarily tankers loaded with oil in ports of the Middle East region. Theirs. course it leads towards an exit from the Gulf, i.e. towards one of the most important transport routes of energy resources.

However, market analysts stress that the situation remains uncertain. If these vessels pass through the strait without incident, this may prompt other shipowners to change the risk calculation and resume transport through the region.

‘Shadow fleet’ and ships with AIS off

Special attention from analysts is drawn to the activity of the so-called Iranian "shadow float", i.e. ships used to transport oil without a sanctioning regime. These units shall use different methods which make it difficult to identify their movements.

The most common is to disable the AIS automatic identification system, which normally allows ships to be tracked by maritime services and shipping monitoring companies.

According to Lloyd, the letter at the beginning of the current crisis, 40 to 50 ships "suddenly" disappeared from traffic monitoring systems. Most of them were in Gulf waters or ports of the region.

Nine cases of passage through the Strait of Ormuz have so far been confirmed for units that had previously shut down the AIS system. It is estimated that around 80% of such passages are carried out when the identification of the ship is disabled.

Shipowners awaiting developments

Analysis of oil market monitoring companies shows that tankers in the strait area do not show signs of withdrawal from the region. At the same time, the behaviour of shipowners indicates great care.

Ships often move at low speed, group near anchors or drift, waiting for a safe passage through the strait.

However, there have been no massive attempts to unload oil in the Gulf region itself. This is in line with the current commercial practice. In case of Iranian oil A large proportion of transhipment operations are carried out further east – through transfers between ships or in Asian ports.

The Strait of Ormuz still a key energy hub of the world

The importance of the Ormuz Strait for the global energy market is difficult to overestimate. This narrow route passes an important part of global oil transport and petrochemical products.

Any disruption of traffic in this area immediately affects the prices of raw materials, the decisions of shipowners and the energy security of many countries. Therefore, even the reduction in ship crossings observed in recent days is carefully analysed by financial markets and monitoring bodies trade in energy raw materials.

Further developments will depend on the level of risk in the region and on the decisions of shipowners and tankers who have to balance economic pressure with shipping safety.