The Ormuz Strait is not closed. Iran has created a vessel selection system

The Strait of Ormuz remains open, but not for all on the same terms. According to this interpretation of the passage of ships today, it is largely up to the state to decide whether it is able to establish relations with Iran.

Let me present another analysis of Shanaki Anselma Perery – an independent geopolitic analyst and author of the book "The Ascent Begins". Perera, followed by tens of thousands of stakeholders on platform X geopolitics and changes in the energy market, this time looks at the Ormuz Strait not as a closed trail, but as a precisely designed selection system for ships passing through these waters.

Level one: allies – free transit

As Shanaka Anselm Perera points out in his entry on the X platform, allies pass through the Ormuz Strait without bearing transit fees. According to the author, Malaysia was to carry out seven tankers after previous diplomatic arrangements. India has negotiated zero rates, while Pakistan has obtained permission to pass twenty units. In the case of Iraq, as Perera claims, the transit was to take place without charge. The countries considered by Tehran to be favourable, according to the author, are to use the corridor in the area of the island of Larak without having to pay financial charges.

Level two: neutral, toll transit

This group primarily includes Chinese tankers and container ships. At least two of them paid $2 million in yuan – funds passed through Kunlun Bank and intermediaries. COSCO ships tried to enter first without complete documentation and were already turned back at the entrance. A few days later, after completing the documents – IMO numbers, ownership chain, cargo manifest and crew list – they received the access code from the Hormozgan Command. An escort consisting of pilot boats carried them through a five-mile channel between Qeshm and Larak. Payment was made in a currency bypassing SWIFT. Each such transition is proof that this kind of settlement outside the dollar is no longer just a theory – they become everyday.

Level three: enemies – ban

As Shanaka Anselm Perera points out in his entry on the X platform, level three concerns enemies – this is a total ban.

As Shanaka Anselm Perera claims, US and Israeli ships, as well as the units of the countries involved in the sanctions against Iran, are not to be allowed into the procedure of obtaining permission to transition. According to the author, they are not authorised, escorted or confirmed to allow transit through the strait. Instead, they get a clear lesson from the Al-Salmi tanker that burns off the coast of Dubai as a warning of what the Strait of Ormuz looks like without Tehran's permission.

Perera, however, emphasizes that the real cost lies not in the fees themselves, but in the insurance of war. Prior to the conflict, the VLCC transit cost about $40,000. Today, rates range from $600,000 to $1.2 million – a thirty-fold increase. Insurance absorbs 5-10 percent of hull value. A $50 million oil tanker is still able to handle it. A $5 million container ship – not anymore. The margin disappears before the ship can enter the Gulf waters.

As a result, the Ormuz Strait became an exclusive belt for oil. The raw material flows – selectively, conditionally and in the currency chosen by Tehran. Everything else either waits, either takes the longest road around the Cape of Good Hope, or never leaves port.

And American Polish Navy? As Shanaka Anselm Perera notes, U.S. Navy ships do not operate directly in the area of the Ormuz Strait itself. According to the author of the entry, the aircraft carrier group USS Abraham Lincoln maintain position in the Arabian Sea waters, while other U.S. Navy vessels remain in Gulf waters.

In the first month since the beginning of the conflict, there have been no cases of escorting merchant ships by U.S. Navy ships in the Strait itself. Perera also argues that the limited activity in this area is due to the continuing high level of threat from marine mines, unmanned impact systems and coastal means of destruction. In his opinion, even a significant weakening of Iranian naval forces does not eliminate asymmetric risks which continue to impede operations in close proximity to the strait.

According to Shanaki Anselma Perery, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Ormuz was significantly reduced during the first month of the conflict. The author of the entry indicates that in March, over 181 units across the Strait, while before the outbreak, the daily traffic was expected to be approximately 138 ships.

In its view, a significant part of the traffic was made up of entities associated with Iran and countries considered to be conducive To Tehran. Other ships, as Perera claims, were to obtain permission to move after meeting certain financial and procedural conditions. As a result, according to the author, the transit of crude oil through the Strait continues, but more selectively than before the conflict began.

In Shanaki's assessment, Anselma Perery Iran suffered serious losses in the air force, marine component and parts of industrial infrastructure. However, according to the author, geography remains a key asset – a narrow section of the coast on both sides of the narrowest point of the Strait of Ormuz, about 39 kilometres long.

According to his interpretation, the presence of U.S. forces in the immediate area of the strait remains limited, while tankers of states maintaining relations with Tehran continue to carry out passages through the waters. The selection mechanism described by the author, including access control, charging and escorting of selected units, is intended to confirm the importance of geographical conditions which remain one of the most difficult factors to neutralise in maritime activities.

The Ormuz Strait is not closed. It is completely controlled by Iran – a Polish Navy The U.S., despite all its power, clearly has no idea how to change this situation.