Ormuz Strait only seemingly open. The passage of ships is still decided by Tehran

There's no way to fully unlock the Ormuz Strait. Tehran "removed the gate" only for part of the ships and did so on its own terms, thus showing that shipping in this area remains a hostage of war and political pressure.

According to world media, Tehran reported that ships not considered hostile by Iran may pass through the Ormuz Strait, but only after having previously agreed transit with the Iranian side. According to these communications, other than this arrangement, US related entities remain, Israel and other countries considered by Iran to be parties to the conflict. This development of the mechanism we have already written about in the article Iran introduces ship selection in the Ormuz Strait. A controlled transit system is established.

It's not an open trail, it's a transition on Tehran terms.

The most important thing is: Ormuz did not return to normal sailing rules. Today, we are not dealing with full unlocking, but with a movement allowed under political conditions. The transition is increasingly decided not by the freedom of transit itself, but by Tehran's consent, and this means that one of the key maritime routes of the world remains a tool of pressure.

Moreover, media reports already show not only information about allowing selected units to pass, but also about attempts to introduce "safe" transit charges. This shows that Iran is trying to exploit the situation not only militarily but also economically, building its own mechanism of pressure around Ormuzu.

Shipowners continue to operate at high risk

From the beginning, we show that Ormuz is not just a geographical "narrow throat" today, but a tool of political and economic pressure. We have already written about the risk of blockade, the problems of shipping, the increasing cost of insurance and the fact that every crisis in this area immediately reflects not only the oil and LNG market, but also on the transport from this fertiliser region and other cargoes relevant to economic and food security.

This is why the narrative about "unlocking" is misleading. In practice, shipping through the Strait of Ormuz was subject to the new rules imposed by Tehran. For the market, it is not the Iran message itself that matters, but whether shipowners, charterers, insurers and crews consider this route to be truly safe and predictable. So far, there is no indication of a rapid return to normal shipping conditions.

The Strait works, but only for the chosen

In practice, this means one thing: the strait was not unlocked, but repealed only for part of the movement. Iran allowed the passage of ships of states considered friendly, but at the same time retained the possibility of control, pressure and political filtering of traffic. Media reports included China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan, as well as South Korea.

In practice, this means the establishment of a system that no longer applies the simple principle of free movement, but controlled transit dependent on Iran's current political calculation. For global shipping and the energy market, this is bad news, because in normal conditions, around one-fifth of the world's supply of oil by sea, as well as a significant part of LNG trade. Any permanent restriction on free movement therefore translates into freight rates, insurance costs and prices of raw materials.

Tehran is testing a new pressure model

Despite media interest in the very slogan of "opening" the strait, the essence of the problem lies elsewhere. Iran today shows that it does not have to formally close Ormuzu to effectively control it. Just allow some traffic, raise costs, extend procedures and increase uncertainty. That is why it is fair to speak not of unlocking, but of sailing on terms imposed by Tehran.

Therefore, the most honest talk today is not about the "repeal of the gate" in the Strait of Ormuz, but about sailing on terms imposed by Tehran.