Ormuz Strait: billions of dollars of loss. How much the war in Iran really costs

The maritime blockade around Iran has its first measurable economic impact. According to the Pentagon, Tehran has already lost $4.8 billion due to retained oil exports, but the full bill of this war does not end with Iranian losses. The United States, the countries of the region and the global economy also cost more and more.

American blockade and Iranian oil trapped in Persian Gulf

According to Axios' findings, the Pentagon estimates Iran's losses at nearly $5 billion. As of 13 April, US forces were expected to divert more than 40 oil carriers or other charges sanctioned. In the Persian Gulf there are 31 tankers with 53 million barrels of Iranian oil, the value of which was estimated at least $4.8 billion. Two units were taken over by US forces.

The pressure mechanism is simple. If Iran can't walk oil on the market, land tanks fill up and tankers begin to act as floating warehouses. In the next stage, Tehran may be forced to reduce mining. It is this point that Washington considers the most important element of economic pressure.

The U.S. also bears the cost of war

In the dispatches, most often there is an account issued to Iran. Less often talk about cost on the American side. Al Jazeera, citing the calculations of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, reported that the United States lost aviation and reconnaissance equipment in this war worth $2.3 to $2.8 billion. This estimate shall not cover damage to bases, specialised equipment or casualties on ships and support units.

This list included, among other things, a reconnaissance and command aircraft worth about $700 million and elements of missile defense radiolocation systems, the value of which was estimated at $485-970 million. The same figures show that the blockade is not a costless demonstration of force, but a part of a full-scale warthe price of which increases on both sides.

A separate account represents damage to American infrastructure in the Gulf States. Iranian strikes included the Prince Sultan base in Saudi Arabia, where according to Western sources the E-3 Sentra early warning aircraft was destroyed or severely damaged and KC-135 air tankers were to be damaged. In Riyadh, drones also hit the U.S. embassy complex, causing fire and material damage. According to reports from NBC News, quoted by the media, the total cost of repairing U.S. military bases and infrastructure in the region could amount to billions of dollars.

An even more serious dimension has damage to the "eye of the missile shield" at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, as we have already written in the pages our portal. It is an AN/FPS-132 Block 5 early warning radar, one of the most important sensors of American missile defence architecture in the Gulf region. The value of the package related to this installation was estimated at approximately $1.1 billion. This amount is due to the DSCA communication of 29 July 2013 on potential sales to Qatar. The package included not only radar, but also equipment, technical facilities, spare parts, training and logistical support.

A separate position in this balance sheet remains maintaining naval forces in the Gulf region and Ormuz Strait. The aircraft strike team is not a single ship, but a whole system: aircraft carrier, aircraft wing, destroyers, cruisers, submarines and logistics units. Estimates given in U.S. analyses say about $6–8 million a day for maintaining one such group at sea during patrols, demonstrations of force and increased combat readiness. Under real combat conditions, the bill increases because of the cost of flights, ammunition, missile shields, stock replenishment and accelerated equipment consumption. With several teams operating in the region, this means tens of millions of dollars each day before the loss is accounted for.

Strait Ormuz as an account for the entire economy of the world

However, the most important thing is not the balance of Iran and the USA, but the effect on the global energy market. Reuters reported that Barclays raised Brent's oil price forecast for 2026 from $85 to $100 per barrel, pointing to prolonged disruptions in the Ormuz Strait. The bank estimated that around 6.6 million barrels a day were missing in the global oil market, while the continuation of the blockade could shift prices to $110 per barrel. 

SolAbility estimates that in the scenario of an extended "apparent truce" $3,57 trillion of global GDP is at risk. In the option of a long-term closure of the strait, the cost may increase to $4.81 trillion, while at full escalation to $6.95 trillion. It is an analytical model, but it shows well the scale of the problem: the blocking of one "narrow throat" hits fuel, LNG, fertilizer, freight and insurance.

Sea War Without Winners

The Ormuz Strait once again shows that geographical location can weigh more than political declarations. Iran is losing billions because it cannot freely sell oil. The US bears the cost of maintaining military pressure, losing expensive equipment and having to rebuild damaged infrastructure. The rest of the world faces more expensive energy, supply disruptions, higher freight rates and increasing risks in shipping.

Therefore, the current crisis is no longer merely a regional conflict involving the US, Iran and Israel. The disruptions in the Ormuz Strait quickly go beyond the military dimension and hit shipping, insurance and transportation of energy resources. As the risk increases, shipowners pay more for ship protection, freight costs more, some units stop crossings or choose longer routes. As a result, the costs of transporting oil and gas, which later go on – to energy, transport, production and goods prices daily use.

The calculations presented are estimated and do not cover all conflict costs, the full scale of which will be known only after its completion. However, one thing can be seen from available data: the conflict caused by Trump's policies and Israel's actions is paid not only by Iran and the US, but also by shipowners and the oil market. At the end of this chain, the bill pays each of us.