The Ormuz Strait under Iran's control. A truce does not mean peace.

The Ormuz Strait formally remains open, but this does not mean returning to safe shipping. More and more shows that safe passage through this route depends today on the rules imposed by Tehran.

If a ship can pass only if it submits to Iranian regulations, it is difficult to speak of full freedom of navigation. Iran does not withdraw pressure. She's changing her form. Instead of a complete closure of the Strait appears a controlled transit in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps indicates who, when and what track can go through one of the world's most important energy routes.

Qatar's methane tanker checks new rules

Catastrophe methane Al Kharaitiyatcarrying LNG from Ras Laffan to Pakistan, passing through the Ormuz Strait through tracks accepted by Iran. According to the traffic tracking data Bloomberg cites is the first Qatari LNG methane tanker to make such an attempt since the start of the war with Iran on 28 February. Two previous attempts, made in April, ended with the units returning before leaving the strait.

This detail speaks more than official messages. It does not indicate that the trail is fully unlocked, but that new rules are tested. If you comply with Tehran’s requirements, you can count on a passage. Those who do not recognise them must take into account the risk of detention, reversal or escalation.

Tehran opens the trail, but on its own terms

On May 6 and 7, the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced new transit rules. According to PressTV, the passage is to be "safe and stable" for units that comply with Iranian regulations and use designated water tracks.

A few days earlier, Tehran announced an expansion of the maritime control zone covering nearly 2,000 kilometers of Iranian coast. It's an attempt to dress the crisis into the language of procedure. Iran is no longer just talking about the blockade. It talks about consents, designated routes and subordination of maritime traffic on its own terms.

Three red lines of Tehran

In the context of talks about the maintenance of the truce, Iran maintains its earlier position against American demands. Tehran does not agree to halt enrichment of uranium, to export supplies of highly enriched material or to joint control of the Ormuz Strait with the United States.

Iranian representatives have previously publicly rejected the proposal to create a mechanism for the management of the US strait. According to the Iranian side, Washington was also expected to have a greater impact on the rules of transit through Ormuz.

This is not just a dispute over shipping. Iran shows that it treats the Ormuz Strait as a tool of political pressure and an element of talks about the region's energy security and influences traffic through this trail.

Israel raises the stake

The situation is exacerbated by Israel's position. According to Channel 12, the authorities in Jerusalem were to tell Washington that a possible return to war should include impacts on the entire Iranian energy infrastructure within 24 hours. Several Arab countries were to support this approach.

If these reports are confirmed, the Strait of Ormuz will only be one element of the wider crisis. The second will be the Iranian energy sector, without which Tehran loses much of its pressure tools.

There's a war of nerves at sea.

Within three weeks, US Central Command fired and disabled four tankers under the Iranian flag: Touska April 19th, Hasna 6 May and Sea Star and Sevda May 8th. More than 57 units have been diverted since the beginning of the blockade on April 13.

Day before immobilisation Sea Star and Sevda The destroyers USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta and USS Mason were under fire in the Strait. American forces responded with self-defense in the Bandar Abbas, Qeshm and Bandar Kargan area. Admiral Brad Cooper stressed that US forces remain engaged in full enforcement of the blockade.

A spot of oil on Kharg Island

A possible picture of the crisis oil spill. On satellite imaging, Copernicus Sentinel, west of the Iranian island of Khark, appeared a spot of about 45 square kilometres. This is a key area for Iranian oil exports. The reason and the place from which the leak originated remain unknown.

A truce is not a peace.

President Donald Trump described the exchange of fire as a "love tap" and stated that the truce was in force. The problem is that the current truce is less and less like peace. It looks more like a crisis under control, in which Iran sets its horns on one of the most important arteries of world oil and LNG transport worldwide.

By 15 May, we will see if Beijing will accept this arrangement. Trump is supposed to come to China. The question of who actually controls the flow of energy between the Persian Gulf, Asia and the world economy will not only be at stake.