Tank market under pressure. The Gulf crisis limits the availability of ships

Interferences in the Ormuz Strait area begin to affect not only oil prices but above all its transport. The extension of routes, the increasing operational risk and the limited availability of units make the tanker market less liquid and the transport costs increase rapidly.

Market ceases to operate as yet

The oil tanker market, including the segment of the largest units (VLCC – Very Large Crude Carriers), has been operating under high volatility conditions for years, but presentescalationgoes beyond standard fluctuations. In a few days, this market has ceased to operate according to the existing rules.

Today the ship's charter is no longer just about negotiating freight rates. Operational issues are becoming key: the availability of units, their ownership status, the possibility of insurance and the real cost of the cruise after the change of route. In practice, this means moving from a relatively predictable market to a real-time decision-making environment.

The distortion scale is unprecedented. Market data indicates a decreaseTanker trafficthrough the Ormuz Strait by over 90% compared to the pre-escalation period. At the same time, hundreds of units remain in the Gulf region and more broadly, more than one fifth of the global tanker fleet is affected.

Importantly, we are not dealing with a formal closure of the trail or a complete withdrawal of insurers. Operational risk remains a key barrier. The threat of incidents causes shipowners to restrict activity in the region and even offer escorts or additional safeguards do not restore normal traffic levels.

Rates are rising, tonnage is decreasing rapidly

As a result, the VLCC market was in a state of clear tension. Freight rates have reached unlisted levels for years and availability of units has been significantly reduced. Transactions are cancelled, negotiations are prolonged and the physical market in many cases loses liquidity.

An additional factor is the extension of routes. Skipping the Gulf area means driving ships around Africa, which extends cruises by 10-15 days and increases costs by as much as a few million dollars per transport. On a global scale, this translates into a decrease in tonnage availability and further pressure to increase rates.

The disturbances in the Ormuse also have a global dimension. Tankers change directions and appear in new loading pools – from West Africa to North America. In the short term, this supports the level of rates, but in the long term it can lead to imbalances in supply and demand across regions.

In parallel, the level of operational risk is increasing. Distortion of the AIS signal, cases of temporary non-identification of units and activity of the so-called ‘Shadow fleets"make ship location and risk assessment increasingly difficult. Under such conditions, each charter decision involves not only financial but also regulatory and operational risks.