The Ormuz Strait. Oil cheaper but the risk to shipping remains

The deescalation signals around the Strait of Ormuz calmed the markets, but did not dispel all doubts. Oil prices have clearly dropped, and Wall Street has ended the week with strong increases, but there are still significant discrepancies in the transmissions from Tehran and Washington. This is why political optimism still does not fully translate into a sense of safety in shipping.

As we reported earlier in the pages our portal, the U.S. vessel traffic blockade to and from Iranian ports quickly affected shipping activity in the Ormuz area. As early as the first days of the restrictions, shipowners began to restrict transit and some units were waiting for further developments or altering course before entering the Strait. This image of the region fits well into wider warnings on shipping safety and increased risk to shipowners.

Shipping continues under pressure

The Ormuz Strait remains one of the most important bottlenecks of world energy trade. This is why any information on ship traffic restrictions or possible re-establishment of transit immediately translates not only into the oil market, but also into the calculation of shipowners, insurers and logistics operators. As we announced earlier, the uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Ormuz area was enough for shipowners to be more careful about planning transitions, and Ship movement He's clearly slowed down.

Tehran and Washington are sending different signals

On Friday, there were signals of the opening of the strait for commercial shipping during the period of the truce. Iranian diplomacy chief Abbas Aragchi stated that the movement of commercial vessels through Ormuz remains open, but is to take place on a coordinated route announced by the Iranian port organisation. At the same time, Reuters stated that crossing the Strait is still to be coordinated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and some threats — of which the risk associated with mines and traffic demarcation route status — there are still serious doubts in the industry.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, argued that the talks with Iran were going in the right direction and that many issues had already been agreed. At the same time, however, he pointed out that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remains in force, and without a long-term agreement the fight could erupt again. Reuters also noted that the Iranian side continued to talk about unresolved discrepancies, especially on the nuclear programme.

Markets play under deescalation

Despite these divergences, on Friday the markets clearly set a calming scenario. Reuters reported that oil prices fell by about 10% when the prospect of sea traffic being resumed by the Strait appeared. Similarly, Polish economic media described it: Bankier wrote about a strong drop in oil and enthusiasm on Wall Street, and "Puls Biznesu" noted that the market began to play under the scenario of the agreement, although the formal agreement was still not concluded.

It is here that it is worth to use the Polish, natural phrase: the market has removed some of the risk premium, but did not consider the problem definitively closed. Such logic is clearly described by the Polish financial media, pointing to a decrease in the geopolitical risk premium while maintaining caution in view of further developments.

The truce doesn't close the case.

Today, therefore, it is more accurate to say that Ormuz has entered a phase of conditional relaxation rather than full normalization. Some ships are returning to movement, but shipping continues to take place in the shadow of blockade, political objections and unclear safety status on the water itself. Even Reuters and BIMCO pointed out that the announcement of a full opening of the strait does not automatically solve the problem of threats on shipping routes.

The markets reacted as if the worst scenario had been removed. The problem is that the movement of ships still shows more caution than political certainty. That is why the fall in oil prices does not mean that the risk in this region has really disappeared.