Qatari LNG halted. What means crisis in the Middle East for Poland

Extension ‘force majeure’ by QatarEnergy by mid-June shows how much Poland's energy security depends today on freedom of navigation. The problem does not begin in the Świnoujście, but thousands of kilometres away – in the Strait of Ormuz, through which gas carriers have been unable to pass freely for weeks.

QatarEnergy prolongs the condition ‘force majeure’

Qatar's state-owned company QatarEnergy has again extended the ‘higher power’ in the supply of liquefied natural gas. According to the CIS portal, the decision is due to apply until mid-June 2026, and its direct cause is the ongoing blockade of the Ormuz Strait, which virtually prevents the safe exit of gas carriers from the Persian Gulf.

It's no longer a simple delay for several loads. It is a test of the resilience of the whole model in which Europe, after leaving Russian gas, has increasingly relied on LNG supplies by sea. We've already written about this mechanism on our portal After the Iranian attack on Ras Laffan: gas remains in the deposit, but the market loses its ability to condense, load and send to the recipients. Therefore, local damage to the Qatari LNG infrastructure quickly becomes a global problem.

Gas is, but maritime transport becomes a problem

According to CIS, the last delivery of LNG in Qatar arrived to the terminal at Świnoujście on 26 March 2026 aboard gas tanker Duhail. The portal also indicates that Poland received an average of 18–19 deliveries of LNG per year from Qatar, giving about 2.2–2.3 billion m3 of natural gas after regasification.

This does not automatically mean no gas in Poland. The national system has several pillars: LNG from other directions, primarily from the United States, Baltic Pipe deliveries, own extraction and interconnections with neighbours. Already in March, Orlen reported that the information from QatarEnergy about the force majeure did not affect the security of LNG supply to Poland.

The problem is something else. Every extension of the Gulf crisis reduces market flexibility. Asia, Europe and the biggest traders are starting to compete for the same loads. Reuters reported in March that the cessation of production in the Qatari LNG complex and the shipping problems resulted in an increase in voltage thereby increasing freight rates.

Ormuz Strait as a Pressure Point

The Ormuz Strait is of greater importance than a single sea trail. For Qatar it is an export gate, for LNG customers — A throat that can't be replaced quickly. If the gas tanker cannot safely leave Persian Gulflong-term contracts are not enough. The paper won't push the ship through a blocked tank.

From the Polish perspective, this lesson is particularly important. Over the years, the discussion on energy came down to the question of where to buy raw materials. Today, the question is equally important, which way this raw material is to flow and how quickly it is possible to replace the lost direction.

Poland's energy is increasingly dependent on maritime supplies

The crisis around the Qatari LNG does not mean that Poland is facing a lack of gas. However, it shows the weaker point of the model, which became the basis of the country's energy security after 2022. Russian gas has ceased to be the axis of the system, and the Baltic Pipe, the Świnoujście LNG terminal and the planned FSRU in the Gulf of Gdańsk have gained greater importance.

It's a big change, but it doesn't mean full immunity. Gas from Qatar, the United States or other directions must not only be contracted, but also loaded, transported and safely unloaded in port. If there is a blockage of the strait, damage to the LNG infrastructure or an increase in freight costs along the way, the effects quickly go beyond the conflict region.

Therefore, the decision of QatarEnergy is a warning for Poland, although not an alarm. The national system has several sources of supply and is not based solely on Qatar. However, any longer distortion on the LNG market reduces flexibility, increases costs and increases competition with available loads.

After 2022, Poland made a huge turn, cutting itself off from Russian gas and strengthening the shipping directions. Now the more difficult stage begins: one must not only have terminals, pipelines and contracts, but also understand that energy security It begins more and more frequently from the Polish borders.

Gas doesn't come from the Excel table. It comes by ship, through the straits of the sea and oceans, where not only the language of the market is increasingly used, but also the logic of blockade, risk and "force majeure".