ORKA programme: consultations completed, submarines still missing

The Ministry of Defence reported that the Armed Forces Agency completed the initial market consultation phase in the ORKA programme. The requirements have been defined, a feasibility study has been established and, as you can easily guess, this is not the final, but another chapter in the history of the longest planned purchase of submarines worldwide.

Orka on the surface again. But only in the communication

On 14 July, the Secretary of State's reply in the Paul Bejda's MON was published on the pages of the Chancellery of the Sejm in response to an interview by Mr Michał Wosi. According to the letter, the Armed Forces Agency concluded a preliminary market consultation on the purchase of new submarines for the Polish Navy. The consultation was conducted, as underlined, on the basis of classified planning documents and a needsheet, and within the framework of these, the Task Force appointed defined hardware requirements and prepared a feasibility study.

Breakthrough? More like a continuation.

Although the communication itself sounds promising, it is difficult to resist the impression that more than a breakthrough, it is about another confirmation of a process that has been going on for nearly three decades. Let us remind – the need to purchase new submarines was identified in the 1990s, and the ORKA programme in various forms has been operating in the planning space since at least 2001.

Read more: Ork without rudder. Where are the guarantees for billions of PLN?

Today, in 2025, we have not only many concepts, but also several series of consultations. The completed stage – in important theory – resembles another turn of the same screw in the conceptual document rather than the actual step towards the conclusion of the contract.

MON: Intergovernmental talks ongoing

According to the current state of affairs, the Ministry of National Defence is currently conducting intergovernmental consultations with all potential contractors. This stage is intended to determine the further purchasing procedure, although the lack of indication of any time frame or milestones allows to suspect that this determination remains, for the moment, more paper than operational.

As he commented with a snack on the X platform, Tomasz Dmitriuk, "Stablely 😉. Analysis is good." – It is difficult to get a more accurate summary of the state of the program, which subsequent governments discuss rather than implement.

ORP The eagle is waiting to be succeeded. Time flows, equipment – less

The only active submarine of the Polish Navy remains the ORP Eagle, the 877E project unit from the late 1980s, whose real combat value – due to age and lack of modernization – remains strongly debated. In this context, each subsequent month of delay in the programme ORKA means further deepening the operational gap in the underwater deterrence area.

Perspectives? See you later. And hope

The choice of the offer – German, Spanish, Italian, French, Swedish or South Korean – is still unknown. There were no binding declarations as to financing, the date of signing the agreement or the extent to which the domestic industry participated. All we know is that "something" happens and that we are closer... more than that, although this distance has already extended.

Read also: Prime Minister Tusk on Orka's program. What does that really mean?

There are still more questions on ORKA than answers. There is only one thing that remains for sure: planning in the Polish navy is a process with extremely deep water. Maybe too deep, even for submarine standards.

Written by Mariusz Dasiewicz