South Korea and its deterrence system. Benefits for Poland

South Korea has been developing a conventional deterrence system based on early detection of threats, precise impact and multi-layered missile defense. This model, known as Three-Axis, has become one of the most comprehensive solutions in countries operating in the region of permanent threat. Its assumptions are also important for Poland.

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The experience of South Korea shows that the concept of multi-layered deterrence also applies in countries operating in a demanding geopolitical environment. In this context, maritime and land-based solutions developed by Korean industry, including Hanwha Ocean, play a particular role, which allow for the construction of coherent early detection capabilities, precise impact and missile defence – key to an effective deterrence strategy.

Korean Three-Axis system – the foundation of conventional deterrence

The Korean conventional deterrence system, known as the Three-Axis System, is based on three pillars: Kill Chain, Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) and Korea Massive Punishment and Retalization (KMPR). This integrated architecture includes hazard detection, precise impact and multi-layered missile defense. Its construction is responsible for the ability to react even before the escalation of the crisis.

This concept refers to Thomas Schelling's theory that the effectiveness of deterrence is not due to the number of systems held, but to the belief of the opponent that it will not be able to neutralize the retaliatory abilities of the other party. Korea has just built such a model – resistant, multi-layered and based on the certainty of the behavior of the "second impact".

The Three-Axis system includes Kill Chain, KAMD and KMPR. In Kill Chain, early detection of the threat and the possibility of an overtaking impact is crucial. KAMD is responsible for the air-missile defence forming a multi-layer shield. KMPR is an element intended for strategic conventional impact in situations where the opponent uses weapons mass destruction.

Hanwha Ocean – three pillars in practice

The first pillar – Kill Chain – provides the ability to perform precise preventive strokes for key purposes before the opponent launches his own means of destruction. Korea uses long-range radars, satellites, guidance systems, and Hyunmoo rockets, including Hyunmoo-5.

Another pillar is KAMD, which creates an anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence network consisting of M-SAM systems (Cheongung) and L-SAM, supported by early warning sensors and integrated command centres.

The last component, KMPR, is the concept of "a crushing response". It assumes to carry out a massed conventional impact aimed at command centres and key infrastructure of the opponent.

The importance of the Korean model for Poland

Korean solutions offer Poland many potential benefits. They include the integration of early warning and sensor systems and the construction of a second impact capacity with the use of land, air and Navy forces in Poland. In this context, it is worth indicating KSS-III submarines, precise long-range rockets, as well as a network of radars and data integration systems.

Noteworthy is the fact that Korea first expands such an offer outside its region and prepares to participate not only in the programme implemented in Poland, but also in projects such as the Canadian submarine construction program.

In the face of threats from missile strikes, drones and their hybrid use in maritime, air and land space, the Korean model can provide the basis for building a multi-layered deterrent system to increase the flexibility and resilience of the state. The deployment of the naval ability of the second strike gives an advantage that strengthens the deterrence architecture itself.

Polish security strategy and the concept of "second strike"

xIt is worth noting that the Polish security strategy is increasingly emphasising the need to develop second-strike capabilities, especially in the context of threats from the eastern direction. Poland Polish Navy, equipped with systems referring to the Korean Three-Axis model, could effectively strengthen the deterrence of conventional NATO in the Baltic Sea region.
Seong-Woo Park, Vice President of Hanwha Ocean responsible for Orka submarine program

Korea has proven that an effective deterrence system without nuclear weapons can be created

Korea has proven that an effective deterrence system without nuclear weapons can be created, dissipating defense systems on land, sea and air, which increases strategic resilience even before the conflict phase.

For Poland, which after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine intensified investments in precise long-range strikes and anti-missile defense, the implementation of elements of the Korean model represents a logical step towards strengthening the national defence system. High-survivability submarines can become its key pillar – says Seong-Woo Park.

Source: Hanwha Ocean