The crisis in the Ormuz Strait directs tankers to the US coast

To the U.S. Gulf Coast heading wave empty supertankers to pick up oil charges under conditions of war with Iran and persistent disruption of shipping by the Ormuz Strait. More and more clearly, global energy trade is entering a phase of acute shuffling. Will the United States be the largest beneficiary of this change?

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Increase in exports of energy raw materials from the Gulf of Mexico

There are currently 68 empty supertankers heading for the U.S. Gulf Coast. Each can take about 2 million barrels of oil. It is not a mere movement of tonnage, but a clear signal that the market is responding to a situation where about 20% of the world's marine oil and LNG trade has been paralyzed by the war with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Ormuz. Despite the truce shipping through this route has still not returned to normal mode, so shipowners and customers are still looking for safer loading routes.

The offset scale is already visible in export data. Bloomberg estimates that oil exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast will average 4.9 million barrels a day in April, which means a new record. This is an increase of 23 percent relative to March and by 30 percent relative to February. In May, 28 super tankers had already been contracted, although in normal conditions at this stage of the month there would be about five of them. According to Bloomberg in May, American exports may for the first time in history exceed 5 million barrels per day.

It's not just about oil. Reuters reported that exports of refined products from the US increased in March to record 3.11 million barrels a day. At the same time the record was also dropped in LNG export USA, as European and Asian customers began to look for alternatives to supply from the Gulf region.

The U.S. benefits from the crisis, but they also pay their own market for it

In practice, the United States has today become an emergency energy supplier for the world market. Not because someone had previously planned this precisely, but because further sources of supply were limited simultaneously by war, sanctions and disruptions of shipping. Reuters had already reported in March that Iran's impacts damaged part of the Qatari LNG export infrastructure in Ras Laffan, excluding about 17% of export capacity for three to five years.

In this situation, the only large producer with scalable export infrastructure, access to deep-water ports and the ability to quickly place loads on the market is the advantage. That's why tankers don't turn around, even if political rhetoric in Washington changes overnight. Reuters stated that on April 8, Donald Trump allowed the concept of a joint charging with Iran for passing through Ormuz, and just a day later he began demanding the opening of the Strait without any charge. The return took place within a few dozen hours, but for the market more important than the declaration remained real shipping conditions.

However, this increase in exports also has a dark side. Reuters reported that March inflation in the US has been the most conquered in years by the fuel price surge, and gas and diesel prices have risen rapidly due to the war with Iran. That meansthat the same crisis that fuels the profits of exporters and refineries simultaneously hits the American driver and raises the cost of living in the country.

The market operates in two directions today

It is equally important, however, that the current crisis operates in two directions today. On the one hand, it pushes Asian and European customers towards American oil and gas, settled in dollar. On the other hand, it does not completely stop Iranian supplies to China, which can still enter the market outside the Western sanctioning regime.

As a result, the current crisis not only strengthens the export position of the United States, but also shows that alternative channels of trade in raw materials continue to operate in parallel. There's no ideology or anti-American tone. There is simply a market that, under conditions of war and disruption of shipping, rewards those who have free raw material, efficient logistics and access to safe terminals.