U.S. Navy ships have launched a blockade of Iranian ports. Will the Ormuz Strait remain expensive?

On 13 April, in the evening of local time, the enforcement of the US shipping blockade associated with Iranian ports began. Over fifteen U.S. Navy ships have been searched in this area to control the movement of ships heading to/from Iranian ports.

According to media reports locking it is to be carried out in an impartial manner, i.e. towards ships of all countries, regardless of their flag. It includes both Gulf and Oman Gulf waters, which are approaches to the Ormuz Strait.

At the same time, units entering ports of other countries of the region are not to be automatically detained. In practice, this means that the strait itself remains open to shipping, but the operational risks on this route have increased rapidly.

Ormuz Strait under close surveillance of the naval forces

The implementation of the blockade involves the introduction of detailed procedures for commercial shipping. U.S. Central Command has announced the publication of navigational messages to determine the recommended routes and how to contact warships in This area.

Civil sailors were required to maintain radio communication with U.S. Navy ships while passing through approaches to the strait. Such activities are intended to reduce the risk of uncontrolled incidents and to facilitate the identification of ships.

This does not change the fact that operating in this area involves a real threat. The analysis indicates that Iran's potential retaliatory activities may include the use of unmanned systems, missile missiles or high-speed impact units.

Risk of escalation and possible retaliation

The introduction of the blockade does not necessarily mean an immediate extension of the air combat activities. At the same time, it cannot be excluded that isolated incidents at sea can lead to further escalation of tension in the region.

Iran's response is expected to be indirect and include attacks on the energy infrastructure of the Gulf States. Such actions would be in line with the existing practice of asymmetrical activities.

At the same time, mine operations are expected to commence in the Strait area. Such activities are a standard element of preparation for the risk of mined waters of strategic importance.

Importance to the oil market and global shipping

Ormuz Strait remains one of the key hubs of global energy transport. Any restriction on freedom of navigation in this area immediately translates into an increase in uncertainty in the energy sector.

In practice, even partial traffic restrictions or increases in ship insurance costs can lead to changes in routes and increases in transport costs for oil and liquefied gas.

The first market reactions indicate an increase in tension in the energy sector and increased caution of shipowners operating in the region.

Another phase of the crisis, not its ending

The start of the blockade should be considered as another stage of the developing crisis in the Ormuz Strait area, not as its culmination. Events so far have shown that even the formal maintenance of the route does not mean restoring full safety.

In practice, for shipowners, terminal operators and energy supply-dependent countries, this means that it is necessary to operate in high-risk conditions for a longer time.

The events of April 13 may become a landmark moment of the current crisis in the Middle East.

From a standpoint safety World shipping, the events of April 13 may be one of the key moments of the current crisis in the Middle East.