Oil skips Ormuz. The fertilizers are stuck. Silent food crisis tempos

The attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf revealed an uncomfortable truth: the world can secure oil supplies, but not fertilizers. As a result, the market looks the wrong way – while oil finds alternative routes, the key nitrogen for agriculture remains trapped. This may translate not into fuel prices, but into global food security.

Today, by scrolling X, I found an interesting analysis of what happened on 2 March in the Middle East – and what is really behind a series of seemingly disconnected incidents. At first glance, this is another aspect of tension in the region. In practice, however, this means something much more serious: changing the logic of the raw materials market.

Let's start at the beginning.

On 2 March, an Iranian drone hit the installation area in Ras Tanura – one of the key oil processing sites in Saudi Arabia. The installation was temporarily shut down, but after a few days she returned to work. Interestingly, it was neither an accident nor a quick repair effect. The infrastructure Riyadh has been building for decades – the East–West pipeline leading toYanbu portThe Red Sea.

Fertilisers without escape route

In practice, this meant one thing: oil, which would normally land on a tanker in the Gulf, was diverted to a completely different route – out of reachOrmuz Strait. The market has received a clear signal – even in the context of the crisis, Saudi Arabia is able to maintain exports.

That's where the problem begins.

Because at the exact same time, Iran's rockets – the largest gas deposit in the world – fell to the installations of the phase 14 gas field of South Pars. It is this gas that forms the basis for the production of ammonia and then nitrogen fertilizers. Simply put, without gas there are no fertilizers, and without fertilizers there are no crops.

A system that stops without warning

The difference is that while oil has its "road of escape", fertilizers do not have it.

From an infrastructure perspective, the energy world is prepared for crises. Pipelines, alternative ports, diversion of routes – it all works. On the other hand, the fertiliser market remains dependent on one "narrow throat". Production and exports are concentrated in the Persian Gulf – precisely where the risk to ships is highest today.

Interestingly, there is no equivalent of Saudi pipeline for ammonia or urea. There are no installations to allow exports to be moved outsideStrait. In practice, this means that if the Strait ceases to be safe – transport just stops.

The market is already seeing this, although it does not fully understand the scale of the problem.

Oil prices react moderately because the infrastructure works. The market assumes that the situation will stabilise in a few weeks. The problem is, this logic is based solely on oil. Meanwhile, fertilisers, which are the foundations of global food production, remain blocked.

In addition, there is a factor that often escapes in the analysis: insurance. After the escalation of tensions, insurers withdrew security for units operating in the Gulf. Without it, ships will not leave – regardless of whether the cargo is ready. Even after the war is over, it may take months if not years to return to normal.

And time is against it.

Fertilisation seasonHe won't wait. The window for crops in the US closes in April, India – in May. According to international organisations, hundreds of millions of people can be affected.

That's where we get to the point.

Today the world looks at oil – because it reacts first and most spectacularly. Meanwhile, the real risk lies elsewhere. Oil found her "Yanbu". Fertilisers – no.

Oil prices are already rising. But this is not the end of the problem. The crisis can move to the food market. This does not mean empty store shelves in the world. It means higher prices, limited availability and growing disparities in access to food. Agriculture does not work in "wait, somehow" mode – the sowing season will not wait to unlock the strait.