Selection of the tenderer in the ORKA programme. Real State gravity test — Part 1

Poland stands at the threshold of a decision that will determine not only the shape of the Polish Navy for decades, but also the strategic security of the state and the real deterrence capacity in the Baltic. It is up to the government to select the tenderer recommended by the ORKA team – a difficult, costly and extremely sensitive decision. This is a moment that requires a cool analysis, free from political disputes, emotional narratives and industry myths.

Therefore, I decided to have a cool, emotionless review of what is actually on the table. Without slogans, without marketing presentations, but real proposals of all companies, which – regardless of differences – combine one thing: each of them can build submarines, each of them has documented competences and each came to Poland with an offer based on its own, running programs.

I will not discuss "options" here, but specific ships that can actually be built for the Polish Navy. That is why this opinion – its three parts – matters. Because in the coming days our government will choose not a vision nor a dream, but what can actually translate into the security of our country.

German TKMS with submarine type 212CD for Poland

Let's start with our nearest neighbour, whose offer does not require advertising – its quality confirms the very presence of German submarines in jackets around the world. One of the most important elements of the German offer, which is still undervalued in Poland, is the issue of arms.

TKMS clearly indicates that the new generation 212CD was designed to integrate with NSM missiles and developed NSM-SL submarine version. For our country – which already operates the NSM in the Marine Rocket Unit, and runs their service on the company level in Zielonka – is an argument of great importance. This would mean entering an arms system that builds European deterrence and creates a real "user's union" covering fleets such as Norwegian, German, Spanish or American.

The NSM-SL variant, designed for firing from the 533 mm launcher, ceases to be a concept from catalogues. This technology is consistently developed on the basis of the NSM/JSM family – with full structural synergy, passive IIR head and flight profile impeding detection. The NSM-SL implementation schedule is naturally included in the calendar 212CD: Platform testing since 2027, first serial deliveries since 2029. In practice, this means that if Poland enters the program with TKMS, the first Eagle can go out into the sea with an effector whose Russian defence will not be able to easily locate or neutralize.

Read more: TKMS: we want Poland to join the underwater power of Europe

It is worth recalling that TKMS is currently running two large submarine programs: German-Norwegian 212CD and Singaporen 218SG. Within the latter two ships – RSS Invincible and RSS Impeccable – have already been formally incorporated into the service for Singapore Navy, while the next two units, future RSS Illustrious and RSS InimitableThey are still being built in Kilonia. This shows that TKMS works in the rhythm of truly serial production and maintains industrial capacity at a level that gives Poland real certainty of supply.

Therefore, when assessing a German offer, we look not at symbols or emotions, but at what actually works: serial production, proven users and operational readiness, which is not in doubt. 212CD with the prospect of integration of NSM-SL is an entry into a system that really strengthens European deterrence rather than creating further years of waiting.

For Poland it is a very clear signal: selection of TKMS and entry into the program 212CD means new Eagle will not only be a platform but a carrier of the most effective European anti-shipper effector and precision land impact missile today. In the Baltic environment, it is an advantage that cannot be overestimated.

French Scorpène Evolved – wide offer but with questions

The French offer has its own weight, tradition and brand, but when I combine it with realities in which Poland will not have any submarine in its fleet for the next few years, I begin to ask myself: does Paris really give us what we need most today? Naval Group proposes Scorpène Evolved – a development and export unit but not used by Marine nationale. This in itself does not cancel the project, but means that Poland would have to rely on a ship that does not swim anywhere. And that's where my personal anxiety comes in.

For years in which the Polish Navy will remain without its own submarines, the bridge solution becomes crucial. Germany talks about type units UlaSwedes with A26 in training configuration, Koreans signal flexibility. Meanwhile – and I say this with full responsibility – French offer gives no bridge ship. Here I will give the floor to Antoni Walkowski, who described it with the precision with which few in Poland can:

I have the impression that the French proposal does not involve the delivery or loan to the Polish Navy of a bridge submarine. I expect Polish sailors on board French Suffren ships rather than leasing Scorpène from an exotic direction.

Read also: Naval Group and PGZ with industrial cooperation agreement on MSPO

It's hard to disagree with his observation. Anthony wrote this clearly and plainly — And it's hard to walk past it anyway. The Naval Group talks a lot about training, logistics and industrial cooperation, while the issue of a bridge ship remains ambiguous in their message. For me – a man who spent three decades watching Orka move in time like a fatality – such confusion is a serious problem. Especially as further quoted by Anthony:

The decision to offer Poland Scorpène Evolved, rather than modified Blacksword Barracuda design units, is considered inappropriate.

And it's hard not to give him the right, because Scorpène's modernisation potential is in fact exhausted, while submarines with diesel-electric drive are just starting their development path.

Therefore, with all due respect to the French technological thought, I must write this plainly: in a situation in which Poland can become a country without a single submarine, offer Naval Group is difficult to justify in the current realities. I do not question the quality of their sonars, torpedoes, combat systems or engineers' competence – I question the lack of answer to the most important question: What is the Navy of the Republic of Poland supposed to do for years before the first Scorpène Evolved ever appears on the horizon? this is not an accusation, but a reflection of a man who has already seen some ambitious programs miss reality. And the Baltic – contrary to the devout wishes of some politicians – will not wait.

Tomorrow I invite you to the second part of my opinion — devoted to what the ORKA programme really matters: what benefits Poland can gain, what risks it must take into account and what decisions will have a real impact on our security over the next decades. See you tomorrow.