Orka program – three best offers on the last straight

In the program Ork worth several billion PLN for the lead were offers from Italy, Germany and Sweden. The final decision on the selection of the supplier is scheduled to take place in the third quarter of 2025 and the contract will be signed in an intergovernmental formula. Thus, the French, Koreans and Spaniards, who offered Poland a brand new unit, were already present at the final stage of the construction.

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Orka submarine program – Italy, Germany and Swedenand head

Programme Eagle, which was to provide the Polish Navy with new submarines, is one of the most delayed modernization projects in the history of the Polish Armed Forces. Work on its implementation has been going on for several years, and several times it seemed that the decision was close, but the contract never came to a conclusion. Now, as the representatives of the Ministry of Defence provide, the trial has gained momentum and is moving towards completion.

The preliminary examination of tenders shows that the best chances of implementing the contract are currently:

Italy (Fincantieri) – their offer is based on a proven U212 NFS project, which is a development of the design used by the Italian Marina Militarye.
Germany (ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems) – they offer 212CD-type ships, developed jointly with Norway, which ensures project stability and rapid delivery rate.
Sweden (Saab) – offers A26 Blekinge units, although the first unit for the Swedish navy is still under construction and has not yet undergone a full series of sea trials.

The choice of these three bidders is based, inter alia, on delivery times and the possibility to ensure the financing of the purchase. An important part of the negotiations is also the possibility for Poland to obtain the so-called. bridge capacity, that is, delivering older submarines while waiting for new units.

Is Sweden’s offer really attractive?

Swedish A26 Blekinge is a design of a submarine with modern design, optimized for Baltic activities. The ship is expected to stand out for its quiet work and its large capacity to conduct special operations. The problem is that no unit of this type has yet entered service, and the first ship, built for the Swedish Navy, is still in the equipment stage. Saab will not start trials of a prototype marine unit until next year.

Furthermore, Sweden did not propose to Poland a bridge capacity, i.e. temporary submarines, which is one of the key elements of the negotiations. This means that we could wait even longer for the delivery of new units than for competitive offers.

Should Poland risk and order a ship that has not yet undergone a full test cycle? This question should be crucial in the context of Polish Navy The Polish Republic cannot afford further delays and experiments. Unlike the German offer, based on the development of a proven 212A project or Italian one based on U212A ships already in use, the Swedish proposal is still in the development phase.

Navantia with attractive offer

In the context of competition for the contract, it is worth mentioning the offer of the Spanish company Navantia. The Spanish offered Poland an S-80 Plus submarine, whose first unit – S-81 Isaac Peral She's already in service in the Spanish Navy. It is a modern large-range unit and advanced air-independent drive (AIP), making it a viable alternative to competitive structures.

However, the Spanish proposal stood out not only with technical parameters. Navantia offered Poland full financing of the purchase, which would mean no burden on the Polish budget in the first years of implementation of the contract. Furthermore, the Spanish offer provided for extensive industrial cooperation, and at this stage 58 Polish companies were already identified which could be included in the programme. The Spanish also offered immediate crew training, which could shorten the time of deployment of new units into service.

Importantly, the indicative price of S-80 Plus ships was included in the forecast budget and Navantia had the right production capacity and was ready to transfer technology to Poland.

So what was the real reason for the Spanish being excluded? No official answer to that question so far.

Negotiations on the Orka programme in a key phase

Government-level talks are currently underway with representatives of Germany, Sweden and Italy. The key issues will be financing, delivery schedule and possible cooperation with the Polish defence industry. It cannot be excluded that the final choice will also be subject to political calculations, taking into account Poland's relations with individual countries.

Although it seems that the matter of buying new submarines is finally heading for the final, Polish sailors will have to wait at least six years for the first modern vessels. Meanwhile, time is at the disadvantage of the Polish submarine fleet – currently the only remaining ORP service Eagle is an individual who is not fully functional and still remembers the times of the USSR.

Is this the program Eagle Is it really going to be completed? The answer to this question will most likely be in the second half of 2025.

Written by Mariusz Dasiewicz