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PWEA: Increased emphasis on RES will save up to PLN 8 trillion on energy transformation
Author:Mariusz Dasiewicz
The potential for land and offshore wind energy development allows to carry out the energy transformation of Poland faster and cheaper than the National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK). Savings can reach up to PLN 8 trillion, according to the analysis of the scenarios of transformation of Polish energy, presented by the Polish Wind Energy Association (PSEW).
"Both offshore wind energy and offshore wind energy could grow more dynamically. This would accelerate the transformation of Polish energy [...] Greater use of the cheapest wind energy on land, instead of developing an expensive nuclear project, would significantly reduce the cost of transformation. In 2040 the difference between the PWEA and KPEiK scenario reaches PLN 8 trillion" - said Irena Gajewska from PWEA, quoted in the release.
According to PWEA estimates, the potential of land wind energy in Poland reaches 22-24 GW. In turn, even 28 GW wind power could be created in the Baltic in the perspective of 2050. In the PWEA scenario, there is no need to implement an expensive and questionable nuclear project. This is because the dynamic increase in wind power, supported by flexible gas capacity, will achieve several objectives: to meet energy demand, to meet RES targets and to accelerate the reduction of CO2 emissions and to stop the escalation of electricity costs, the association emphasises.
The National Energy and Climate Plan presented by the Polish Government assumes the use of RES and gas in place of withdrawn coal generation units, and in 2035 the launch of nuclear power plants. According to the document, in the next two decades land wind power – currently the cheapest new energy generation technology in Poland – is to be maintained at about 10 GW of installed power, recalled. Meanwhile, the indicated level in Poland will reach within the next two years, i.e. by 2022. This is the result of RES auctions conducted in 2018 and 2019.
According to the government plan, offshore wind energy is to develop. The current from the first wind farm installed in the Baltic will flow to the Polish network around 2025. In the next years of power, it is expected to arrive. The objective is to reach 3.8 GW in 2030 and about 8 GW in 2040. A slightly more dynamic development of offshore elevators assumes the Energy Policy of Poland by 2040 – whose consultation process has recently been completed by the Ministry of Climate. Here, 5.9 GW of power is adopted in offshore wind farms in 2030 and 8-11 GW after the next decade, and reminds PWEA.
The European Commission expects Poland to reach 25% of RES energy in total energy consumption by 2030. The NCP set a less ambitious target – 21-23%, this higher rate dependent on additional EU funding. PEP2040 adopts the target of 23%. In the PWEA scenario, 35% of RES electricity would meet the 25% target in all sectors: electricity, heating/cooling, as well as transport, the organisation underlines.
One of the main locomotives of energy transformation in Poland could be the industry, which is responsible for the consumption of 60 TWh of electricity in the country, i.e. about 1/3 of domestic consumption. Companies using so much electricity want to buy energy at the lowest price. Hence, their growing interest in the possibility of obtaining energy from renewable sources, also as a result of the conclusion of the contract directly with the producer under the so-called corporate contract PPA.
"This formula has the enormous potential to develop RES without state support, i.e. de facto without burdening final customers with electricity bills, the so-called RES charge. In the meantime, in the KPEiK, despite the clear EC guidelines in this respect, no mention was even made of cPPAs – contracts based on which large energy customers can contract it directly to RES producers" - said Gajewska.
The decarbonisation potential of industry is according to PWEA huge – only energy-intensive customers using 30 TWh of energy per year to meet 20% of their demand, which they can balance in their internal networks would generate the development of new RES capacity – 1.4 GW wind on land and 1.8 GW photovoltaics. This would mean, among other things, a reduction in CO2 emissions by 6,000 tonnes per year over the 2030 horizon. In order to allow this to happen, however, it is necessary to abolish the 10H principle which is still blocking the development of land wind power and to allow a direct line directly connecting the RES manufacturer to the industrial plant.
Both KPEiK and the PWEA scenario assume that in 2040 coal will continue to play an important role in the Polish energy sector – 28.7% and 26.4% respectively. In order to achieve climate neutrality in 2050, as planned by the European Commission, it will be necessary to develop further renewables. The key to exploiting the available potential in the case of wind on land will be to change national law, and for offshore wind energy to strengthen international cooperation, the information is finished.
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