The Ormuz Strait. The market believed in relaxation too quickly

At the end of last week oil prices fell heavily and markets began to play under the scenario of rapid relaxation around the Ormuz Strait. Today, however, it is clear that shipping and trade in raw materials assess the situation much more carefully, and the questions about security to pass through this area have not disappeared.

Iran's announcement of the opening of the strait for commercial shipping has sparked an immediate reaction from the markets. Brent finished on April 17 with a fall to $90.38 per barrel, and WTI to $83.85. Two days later, however, the market began to correct this optimism, as the situation on the trail itself deteriorated again.

Friday's relief didn't last the weekend.

In mid-April, investors adopted Iranian declarations as a signal that the worst scenario for the energy market could be pushed away. Hence the violent price of oil and the improvement of mood on the stock markets.

As we wrote earlier on our portal in the text "Oil cheaper but the risk to shipping remains"the very announcement of the opening of the Strait did not immediately restore normal ship traffic. It was already apparent that some shipowners were taking a very careful approach to the situation, and the key questions concerned the safety of passages, the risk of mines and the rules of traffic coordination by the Iranian side.

The problem is that this optimism has not been fully confirmed in practice. On 17 April, shipowners and shipping companies accepted new declarations with clear caution. Reuters wrote that some ships tried to leave the Gulf, but not all such attempts were successful, and the industry demanded clarifications on mines, transition conditions and traffic coordination rules with the Iranian side.

Shipping continues to operate under uncertainty

The important thing is that safety on Strait It didn't go back to normal rhythm. Even if some units attempted to pass, the risk to shipping did not disappear. Reuters stressed on 20 April that uncertainty remains high, and shipping companies continue to carefully approach the return to this route. Saul Kavonic, quoted by the agency, even estimated that shipowners would be even more restrained after recent events.

This is why it is more appropriate today to say that the strait has entered a phase of short-term and unstable relaxation rather than permanent improvement. The financial market reacted quickly, but uncertainty still prevails at sea.

LNG gas turbines show the scale of the problem well

This can be seen even more clearly in the traffic of LNG. From information published by Economic Times, based on tracking data collected by Bloomberg, it appears that several units loaded in Qatar interrupted the attempt to move towards the western exit from the Persian Gulf. Some turned back towards catharic waters, and some significantly reduced speed.

According to the same message since late February, no loaded LNG gas oil He didn't leave the Gulf. At this stage, I would treat this information as a strong signal for the market, but ancillary to Reuters because it comes from secondary development and requires further confirmation in subsequent sources.

This thread, however, shows the point of the problem. It is no longer just about oil listing itself, but about real disturbances in the movement of ships carrying energy resources. If LNG units reverse or postpone the transition, the market participants still did not consider the situation to be safe.

The market was more careful from the beginning

And that's where the story comes back to which he pointed to the X Shanaka Anslem Perer platform. The future contract market reacted faster and with more optimism than the real supply market – and this difference proved important. Reuters had already written on 16 April about a clear departure between Dated Brent and futures contracts, indicating that oil in actual deliveries was valued higher than the quotes of future contracts.

Simply put, investors began to play under the scenario of extinguishing tensions, while participants in real trade continued to assume that the risk of supply disruptions did not disappear. It's an important distinction, but today, April 20, it's just a part of a bigger story. The weekend showed that the financial market could simply be too quick to recognise that the worst stage of the crisis was removed.

Ormuz still remains an incendiary point

Friday's oil sale didn't close the case. Today, this is April 20th Brent again approached $97 per barrel, and WTI to $90, which shows that the market quickly stopped believing in lasting relaxation. There is still caution at sea, and the situation in the Ormuz area remains unstable.

In short, the market believed in relaxation too quickly. Shipping and trade in raw materials continue to send a much more cautious signal.