"Dad or Mom?". – Supplement

The necessity to acquire (purchase or build) both frigates and submarines does not mean the naivety of the author. The recent text of the discussion welcomes, but some directions require a supplement to the original text.

Pragmatism in Planning to Acquire Submarine Ships

The awareness of the difficulties and limitations in obtaining such expensive and complex weapons as modern warships, the complexity of the process of defining operational requirements and tactical and technical assumptions, the need to plan stable funding of the program, to provide staff with the qualifications necessary to manage the above processes and capabilities of the Polish shipbuilding industry, leads to "realization in dreams".

Poland is unlikely to be able to conduct the process of acquiring the ships of both classes simultaneously. Nevertheless, the author's intention was to indicate the dangers of thinking that "first Mom, then Dad". The public opinion that we will first build frigates and then submarines is most likely the result of the lack of knowledge about how long this process lasts and the lack of awareness that "burning sheets" is not its beginning and one of the stages of this process, perhaps the last of the initial and more first of the middle ones.

Read more about frigates MEASURANT, i.e. new capabilities of MW RP in ZOP

Time-consuming construction process

The process of acquiring ships of this value and size takes at least 10 or even 15 years, as the first 1-2 years are defining needs, the next 1-2 years are selecting a supplier and negotiating a contract, then about a year to prepare for the start of production (e.g. contracting subcontractors and subcontractors), production of about 4-5 years (including launching and equipping and system integration), then port and sea tests (about a year) and handing the ship over to the user. After about 10 years from initiation of the process, the user receives the ship, which does not mean that the fleet has, for example, a frigate or submarine. This means that this object must "rise" the other two components of the battleship.

Speech about a trained commander and a trained crew (because the ROUND consists of: the commander, crew and "the proper ship"), which is obtained during construction, but training and assembly of the whole is possible (taking into account practices, simulators, training centres on land, obtaining parts of qualified specialists from other units) when this ROUND begins to go out to/to the sea and acquire the characteristics of one organism. This process takes about 3 years. So 13 years after the idea, the fleet receives a weapon. If we add unforeseen difficulties, delays, etc., then thesis about 10-15 years of the whole process defends itself, according to the author. However, this calculation applies essentially to the first unit.

When do we start harvesting submarines?

Being aware of such a process of gaining e.g. a frigate, the question should be asked, at which point, in Polish realities, the process of acquiring another equipment with comparable cost and complexity of construction can be started.

Have you finished entering the frigate? So in the 10's? Certainly not. After their completion, the natural process should be planning directions and possibilities for future modernization (Mid-Life Upgrade) and then planning the selection of successors... Yes, it is not a mistake to introduce a modern battleship into the line, it should certainly result in both processes.

This description, according to the author, shows that the acquisition of the second system (and so should be considered both the frigate and the submarine) should run in parallel. In our realities, due to the limitations described at the outset, it is necessary to shift both processes one step towards each other.

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This means that the completion of the process, e.g. the selection of frigates, should be the beginning of the process of defining and selecting submarines. Only then will it be possible to share the use of both modern classes of ships and achieve the effect of a "full family" if you stick to the adopted convention. If we wait for the frigate to be introduced, the ships of both classes "will fall away in service."

Industrial and financial benefits

Running both programmes in parallel (although "moved in phase") will allow the use of experienced specialists (and we do not have them in excess), their knowledge and awareness of how such a process takes place and where mistakes can be made (or avoided), the strengthening and improvement of the reorganised weapon purchasing system and ensuring continuity of work in the "armour" sector in Poland. Even if economic construction of submarines in the country is not expected, there are possibilities to obtain compensation orders in sectors where our industry will be able to build frigates.

In the end, an important aspect, although perhaps not the most important, is funding. In spite of appearances, ships are not as expensive as they seem at first glance. The comparison of all costs is quite favourable for them compared to aviation and land troops, for example, due to the limited personnel costs. Their long-term construction, which is a drawback, has this advantage with stable funding, it is possible to break costs over many years. Assuming a 10-year funding period and an average price of a frigate or submarine of EUR 1 billion, this would mean spending of PLN 2-2.5 billion per year for 10-13 years. Can we afford it?

Therefore, in the interests of a proper understanding of the intention of the written text, the author gives consideration to how this process should be planned, so that the MW of the Polish Republic can have the full capacity to perform its tasks.

Written by Tomasz Witkiewicz