TKMS: we want Poland to join the underwater power of Europe

The Germans are not bluffing. TKMS opened the cards, showing technological, industrial and political readiness. It is clear from the information publicly available by the company: Poland is being treated as a key partner in the expansion of the European underwater power.

TKMS not only presents its production capacity, but also a vision of cooperation involving technology transfer, servicing and joint building of maritime safety. These are not declarations – this is an invitation to enter deep water.

Independence in German

June of this year thyssenkrupp Marine Systems formally renamed TKMS. The change, seemingly cosmetic, is of deeper importance – it is a symbol of the yard's exit from the company's shadow and transition to full autonomy. As Germany explains, it is not only about management, but about a new way of thinking: TKMS is to be no longer an "industrial branch of the giant", but a sovereign player in the global maritime defence market.

It's a strategic decision. TKMS is today the largest system supplier in the German maritime industry and one of the few in Europe that combines the design, production and full service of submarines. The company anticipates a sharp increase in demand for this type of unit in the next decade, which – with increasing geopolitical tensions – means an opportunity for development, but also responsibility. Germany wants to carry it as an independent entity.

TKMS wants to be a naval power

The new chapter also has a new ambition. Berlin does not hide that TKMS is to become "sea power" – a company offering not only individual ships, but entire integrated marine systems: from manned and unmanned platforms to sensor networks, effectors and mobile reconnaissance stations.

It is an ecosystem capable of acting as a "system system", resistant to changing environment, jamming or interference. Germany wants TKMS to become a European leader from a real event — technologically and organizationally.

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That's not empty ambition. TKMS is today one of the few shipyards in the world that are realising the development of submarines. Ships of their construction float under the flags of more than a dozen countries — from Norway, Greece and Israel, to South Korea. This is a worldwide extraclass among submarine manufacturers, built on German technical discipline, perfection of performance and uncompromising quality. In this area Germany is simply a world power.

What about the offer for Poland?

Name change does not change anything about the program Eagle. The offer remains the same and Germany clearly confirms that the implementation of the project for in the Polish Navy is within their current production capacity. Moreover, thanks to the launch of the new plant in Wismar, TKMS almost doubled its production capacity, which allows for parallel execution of orders for Germany, Norway and potentially for Poland.

The German shipbuilding company emphasises that the deadlines required by the Armed Forces Agency are feasible – without any qualitative compromises. Moreover, Berlin suggests that intergovernmental cooperation at G2G level (Government-to-Government) can further shorten these deadlines through flexibility in security policy within the EU and NATO.

Ula OOP – bridge to the future

One of the most interesting elements of the German proposal is the temporary solution – the transfer of a ship of type to Poland Ula as "gap filler". It's an individual well known and proven, still valued for reliability. In this context, it is worth noting that Polish Navy RP already has experience in the acquisition of Norwegian ships, as illustrated by the program Kobben. How I Convince TKMS, a similar transfer could be carried out efficiently – in agreement with Norway and Germany – along with a full training package and infrastructure support.

Such a step would maintain the continuity of crew training and prepare technical facilities before new ships enter service under the programme Eagle.

This would not be a second-hand purchase, but an element of the process of Poland's entry into the 212CD programme, i.e. the logical transition stage in crew training and infrastructure testing. TKMS convinces that OOP type Ula would allow Polish submarines to get used to the operational philosophy of future 212CD units.

Technology transfer. Test of reliability

One of the most important points of TKMS response is the declaration that Poland will receive its own service and service centre (MRO) for 212CD ships. Germany not only considers that our industry has the capacity to create such a centre, but also argues that with the growing number of units ordered, both for Germany, Norway and future users in Europe, the current service capacity in the region is simply not enough.

In practice, this means that Poland could become a service hub for the entire Baltic, and PGZ Stocznia Wojenna– the natural host of this project. From an economic perspective, it is a project that can bring PGZ Naval Shipyard multi-million-dollar revenues and durable service competence in the field of modern submarines. Within the next decade, the Baltic will operate from 13 to 15 Type 212A and 212CD units, which require regular revisions, modernization and technical support.

For the PGZ SW is not only a potential revenue, but also a real way to build competences that would allow Poland to enter the European chain of maintenance and modernization of modern submarines.

TKMS clearly confirms its willingness to cooperate with Polish shipyards. It indicates that the independent use of submarines by Poland requires the participation of national entities, and the company has proven models of technology transfer, training and licensing production. These are not empty declarations – Germany recalls that similar projects have already been implemented, among others, in Norway, Greece and South Korea, building local MRO capabilities there based on their own technologies.

AIP, non-magnetic steel and advantage on the Baltic

TKMS has no technological complexes. In his replies he emphasizes that the 212CD class was designed for operations in shallow, difficult waters – such as the Baltic. The key is the use of non-magnetic steel, which almost completely eliminates the magnetic signature of the ship, making it difficult to detect it with MAD systems (magnetic anomaly detection).

It is this technology, alongside the AIP, that has made TKMS ships set global standards in the "silent fleet" category for years.

NSM Logistics: European Network and Polish Pillar

Spain is already moving its fleet to NSM – the decision to choose the missile as Harpoon's successor and the delivery contract for F-110 frigates or upgraded F-100s show that a wider "user's council" is being created around the solutions proposed by Kongsberg. In this context, it is crucial for Poland that TKMS clearly points to the ability to integrate NSM/NSM-SL with the new generation 212CD.

The underwater version – NSM-SL – is no longer a theory, but a consistently developed technology: a 533 mm launcher capsule, a "swim-out" and then a shield rejection and a marching flight. The foundation is the proven NSM/JSM family, which reduces the integration risk. In industry literature, the SL variant appears in the context 212CD users – and thus potentially Poland. The manufacturer does not yet publish official dates, but the direction is designated.

Estimates indicate that the end of the decade window will be a real moment for the implementation of NSM-SL. This fits well into the 212CD calendar – platform testing since 2027, the first deliveries since 2029. TKMS emphasizes that their solutions are designed precisely to introduce an effector on the Baltic, which the opponent will not locate and neutralize.

The NSM isn't just a missile. It's a weapon that combines precision of land and sea strikes, passive IR guidance, interference resistance, and low detection flight profile. The SL version carries this philosophy under water – increases unpredictableness, forces the opponent to disperse the defense.

Against this background, it is worth recalling that Military Electronic Plants in Zielonka have already been designated as a service and repair centre for NSM rockets at the factory level as part of an offset for the Marine Rocket Unit. This means that Poland has not only a user but also its own competence to maintain this effector.

For Poland it is a clear signal: the choice of TKMS and the entry into the 212CD program will most likely make the first Orka go out into the sea with the NSM – a projectile that today builds European deterrence and will seriously thwart Russian calculations.

Poland should be thinking about weaponry underwater, not just the Orca itself.

Undoubtedly the most important issue in the selection of new submarines for the Polish Navy today is the ability to carry and fire long-range missiles. In the realities of the war in Ukraine and the growing tensions throughout the Baltic region, this ability is the key to credible deterrence.

The Baltic stopped being a sea of transit – it became a space of rivalry and demonstration of force. The submarine with the maneuvering missile in the launcher today is a strategic voice of the state: it can speak without announcement and without words. The modern battlefield rewards those who operate in silence and strike from the depths.

Therefore, it is not the ship itself, but its armaments will define the meaning of the Orca in the new security system of Europe.

In a world where the front lines move faster than new ships arrive, what matters is not what floats, but what can hit from the depths. Therefore, talk about the program Eagle it should not be limited to the choice of the hull manufacturer, but to whether Poland will enter into possession of long-range shock capabilities from the sea. Because in the 21st century, the real force of the fleet hides not on the surface, but beneath it.

An underwater submarine that can launch a missile maneuvering at a land and water target is not just a weapon. It's a tool of political coercion. NSM-SL – a version of the well-known NSM adapted for firing from the torpedo launcher 533 mm – brings the element of unpredictability to the game. The hidden, precise impact from the sea forces the opponent to redirect resources and attention, reducing its ability to operate elsewhere.

The NSM-SL is technically based on proven NSM and JSM solutions. It is to fly far, hit accurately and survive in an environment with intense electronic combat support. In practice, this means more than 250 km of range, operation with disrupted GPS, passive self-propelled head with an IR camera, ability to distinguish targets through an integrated image base and flight profile optimised for low detection. Inertial systems, military GPS receiver, laser altimeter and digital maps and sea wave analysis were used for navigation.

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Constructively, the NSM-SL is primarily an integration into a transport and firing pod contained in a standard 533 mm torpedo launcher. After the "swim-out" the capsule emerges, the bullet rejects the shield and continues to fly the marching engine; an option is also provided to use the auxiliary engine to increase range. Minimum modifications to the airframe and application of JSM solutions reduce technical risks and accelerate the introduction of this capability to service.

For Poland, which already operates the NSM in the Marine Rocket Unit and built a national service center, NSM-SL is a natural and reasonable development of competences. It's not just another variant of the rocket. — This is a serious strengthening of the deterrence capacity and the instrument of action, the value of which increases in proportion to how difficult it is to find the platform from which it will be launched.

Because it is these ships that are most afraid of Russia – those that cannot be seen, that are silent and can strike at any moment and anywhere. A submarine armed with a maneuvering missile is not an offensive weapon but a psychological weapon. It acts on the enemy's imagination more than on his fleet. It teaches caution and makes Poland count not only on the map, but also below the sea surface.

Germany versus the rest of the world. Transparency check

The most delicate point concerns competition. Italians and Koreans also apply for a contract under the Orka programme, offering units will be in these German licensed fleets – the Italian type Todaro is based on 212A, and the Korean KSS-I is a development of project 209. Naturally, the question arises as to what the issue of licensing rights looks like and whether both countries are free to continue resale.

According to international agreements, any transaction involving ships based on German projects requires the approval of Berlin. What would it be like in practice to get it? Do Italy and South Korea offer clear assurances about this? And most importantly: does this not give rise to the risk of delays in deliveries to Poland?

TKMS does not explicitly refer to this – which in the context of a delicate diplomatic balance is understandable. Germany avoids an open dispute with partners from the South and the Far East. But the questions remain. And since time matters in the game, Poland needs to know whether such legal structures will slow down the implementation of the entire program.

And here is the fundamental question – is it fair for other countries to tender ships as their own constructions, admitting their German origin, but not explaining how and when they intend to obtain Berlin's approval to sell them to Poland?

Because in a game where time counts, such uncertainty can cost months – and today Poland no longer has the luxury of waiting.

There is nothing worse in the arms world than incomplete transparency. Because buying a submarine is not a one-time contract – it's a 40-year bond. It requires loyalty, partnership and trust.

And Poland? Today, during the war behind our eastern border, in a situation of growing tension in Europe and uncertainty of alliances, can he afford to risk that the decision to supply ships will depend on the third country?

Can we afford to wait months after choosing an offer until the Italians or Koreans negotiate with Germany permission to sell? Every month of delay is a month lost to safety. Today we do not have the comfort of diplomatic patience – we need real capabilities for today, not declarations.

It's decision time. Poland cannot afford to wait

Orka submarine program It's not just a purchase of equipment. This is a choice of civilisation – a decision with which Poland wants to build its marine capabilities, the shipbuilding industry and the security of our country for decades.

Berlin put his cards on the table. It speaks clearly what it can and cannot give. Italians and Koreans – so far – prefer to talk about the origin of their ships with half a mouth.

All the questions have already been asked. All answers – given. Now it is not a question of technology but of the courage of our decision-makers.

For me personally, it does not matter who will supply Poland with submarines. — all major companies have proven that they can build units of this class and will undoubtedly deliver them as ordered.

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As for the declaration of the temporal dimension, however, I will allow myself a little pessimism. As the practice of shipyards around the world shows, the process of building submarines rarely ends at the expected time. Even the greatest naval powers record many years of delays – not months but years go by between plan and launching.

Therefore, in the Polish case it is not only about who will build the Orka, but when and if we can arm in time. Because if the real supply horizon is another decade, this means that forty years after the first declarations Poland will still be waiting for its own submarines.

This is no longer a technical problem, but a strategic one. Can we afford another ten years without our own submarine when the frigates of the Sword enter the service soon?

If we delay, in a decade we will get modern hulls – but perhaps without the weapons we are talking about so intensely today, and which we need so much.

Time is not in our favor, and the sea knows no mercy. Orka – if she is to surface – must do so now.

The public declarations of TKMS show one thing: Germany wants Poland to join the European underwater power. What will come of it, they'll show you next few weeks.

And I hope it's not too late.

Written by Mariusz Dasiewicz