The Middle East War hits maritime transport

The war between Israel, the United States and Iran quickly affected the situation in global maritime transport. In the Persian Gulf region, the threat to merchant ships increased rapidly, and traffic through the Strait of Ormuz, one of the world's most important shipping routes, practically died.

According to information provided by the agencies Reuters and Bloomberg, more than 200 merchant ships and tankers stopped their cruises and dropped anchor near the Strait, fearing attacks, taking over units or entering potential "minefields".

Tankers under fire

In the first hours after the start of Operation "Epicka Furia" there were incidents involving civil ships. At least three tankers were damaged in the Gulf region.

One of them was a tanker. Skylight flying the flag of Palau, which was hit near the coast of Oman. As a result of the explosion four sailors were injured – the crew were evacuated.

According to the UK agency for transport safety Marine UKMTO explosions have also been reported on other units in the region. Another tanker was damaged near the United Arab Emirates coasts.

Additionally, ships in the Persian Gulf received radio communications broadcast by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in which it was warned that ships should not pass through the Strait of Ormuz.

One of the world's most important bottlenecks

The Ormuz Strait is one of the key points of global maritime transport.

Around 19 million barrels of oil and petroleum products flow through here every day, including nearly 16 million barrels of oil alone. This is responsible for a significant part of world trade in energy raw materials.

Under normal conditions hundreds of ships a day pass through the Strait – from VLCC oil tankers to LNG gas.

After the start of military and Iranian retaliatory operations, Ormuz's exports of raw materials fell to about 4 million barrels a day, nearly four times less than in standard conditions.

What happens if the Ormuz is blocked

JPMorgan's analysts warn that if the disruption of shipping persists for more than three weeks, the Gulf States may be forced to reduce oil production.

The storage capacity in the region, including Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Iran, is approximately 343 million barrels. This is a supply equivalent to about 22 days of production that could not be exported.

Additional buffers can provide tankers used as floating warehouses. There are about 60 empty units in the region that can hold about 50 million barrels of oil, which would allow export opportunities to be extended for several days.

Immediate market response

Tensions in the region have already translated into financial markets and commodity prices, as Brent's oil price has increased by more than 7%. At the moment, the jump was up to 13 percent before it stabilized around $78 per barrel. American WTI oil followed the same path, surpassing 75 dollars at the top – by over 7%.

At the same time, investors began to move capital towards safe assets – gold prices rose and the dollar strengthened against most currencies.

Consequences for Europe and Poland

The possible blockade of the Ormuz Strait would hit not only oil producers from the Middle East but also global energy system.

This route not only transports huge amounts of oil, but also LNG – especially from Qatar, which is one of the key gas suppliers for Europe.

Distortions in shipping can therefore quickly translate into an increase in fuel, energy and transport prices worldwide.

Although Poland is not directly dependent on oil supply from Persian Gulf, this global nature of the raw materials market means that any major disturbance in the Strait of Ormuz also affects the countries of the European Union.