War in Iran. Maritime transport again threatened

On Saturday, February 28, around 6:00 p.m. local Israel, with the support of the United States, began an extensive military operation against Iran. In raids for targets in Tehran and other parts of the country, the highest leader of Iran, Ajatollah Ali Chamenei, who ruled the state since 1989, was killed.

Attack on Iran's highest authorities

According to foreign news agencies, first wave The attacks included military targets, strategic infrastructure and facilities where the state leadership could be present. According to available information, the operation was to target key structures of the Iranian power system and the nuclear programme.

During the bombing, Iran's highest leader, 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Chamenei, was killed. His death was first reported by the U.S. authorities and Israel and subsequently confirmed by Iranian state media.

According to available information, several high-ranking Iranian military commanders and camera representatives may also have been killed in raids. safety.

Iran responds with rockets and drones

In response, Iran conducted missile and drone attacks against targets in Israel and against US military bases in the Middle East region.

The Tehran authorities announced a 40-day national mourning and announced a "strong response" to Israel and the United States.

It is estimated that after the 12-day conflict of June last year, Iran rebuilt mid-range missile supplies to about 2,500 copies. It's a number that really changes strategic calculations in the region. For a country that has been operating under sanctions for years, such potential means one thing – the ability to conduct a long-term missile campaign rather than a one-time demonstration of force.

Ormuz Strait and Maritime Transport

The escalation of the conflict immediately sparked concerns about the safety of maritime transport in the Gulf region. The Ormuz Strait is of particular importance, through which a significant part of the world's oil and LNG supply passes.

In the past, any increase in tension between Iran and Western countries has led to a threat to shipping – from attacks on tankers after taking over merchant ships. In the current situation, analysts are concerned that Iran can reuse this pressure instrument.

A turning point in the Middle East

The death of Iran's long-standing leader can lead to major changes in the power system in the region. At the same time, questions arise about who will take power in Tehran and whether the country will plunge into an internal political crisis.

In the short term, however, the most realistic scenario is further conflict escalation – both military and economic.