Selection of the tenderer in the ORKA programme. Real State gravity test — Part 3

In the third most demanding part of my opinion on the ORKA programme, we enter where simple elections end, and begin real risks: unclear schedules, declarations difficult to verify and constructions that – although promising – still do not exist in the finished form. That's Italian. U212 NFS Swedish A26 They share public opinion and experts strongly.

Some see in them the future of European submarines, others – the path to many years of delays and gaps in capabilities which Poland cannot afford today. In this part I will try to separate political noise from the facts and see if these two offers really meet the needs in the Polish Navywhether they are only a well designed narrative.

Italian submarine U212 NFS with strong declarations, but many unknown

Let's start with the Italian shipbuilding company Fincantieri, which proposes Poland's ship U212 NFS – development of the German line U212 with Italian modifications, compact low-signature hull, developed AIP and special forces facilities. On paper, it's a construction that could be found in the Baltic. The problem is that there are too many question marks in the package with this offer: unclear delivery schedule, lack of full platform configuration, lack of details about training and participation of Polish shipyards, and even lack of basic technical data which should be standard at this stage.

In addition, there is a context that requires us to approach this proposal with greater care – the level of declarations, narratives and promises is much higher than the level of hard, verifiable details. I do not want to develop this theme in this particular text (I described it in more detail in the text (link to text) but in short: the more politics and emotions around the offer, the more we should be interested in a cool risk balance.

Read also: Minister Kosiniak-Kamish: Orka submarine program priority

The Italians have recently added a mini-submarine to special operations and a bridge ship of German design, requiring the approval of Berlin and TKMS – which in itself is a source of additional delays and uncertainty. Neither the mini-orca nor the bridge ship are currently operationally proven by the Italian fleet, and in the programme of this scale the difference between "maybe" and "works" is crucial.

Therefore U212 NFS remains an interesting proposition for me personally, but too much based on the word of honor, and too little on the hard guarantees that Poland needs in the current geopolitical situation.

Swedish A26 Blekinge – Orka’s most controversial offer

Swedish A26 Blekinge is today the most polarizing offer in the entire Orka program. On the one hand, he has his enthusiasts among experts and military, who have stressed for years that it is a construction almost "cut under the Baltic" – quiet, modern, with interesting technical solutions. On the other hand, we have hard facts: many years of delays, the lack of completion of the first two units for Svenska Marinen and the question of whether the capacity of the shipyard in Karlskrona is at all able to supply Poland with ships in time acceptable to us. A26 will reach full maturity only after 2030 – under current geopolitical conditions it is a high risk date.

Saaba's offer is based on solutions that on the Baltic could look very good on paper: small signature hull, Stirling Mark V system, 9LV system, MMP portal for underwater drones. The problem is that it is still a promise of future abilities, not a system that can be seen in regular service. HMS Blekinge and HMS Skåne are still developing, and additional orders for FMV move most deliveries to 2026–2032. In other words, we are talking about ships that have not yet passed the full life cycle in the Swedish fleet.

The political context is an additional burden. The joint letter of the Prime Ministers of Great Britain and Sweden, presented as a signal of support for the A26, shows how much this offer has become part of the diplomatic game. But I'll write about it in a minute. Meanwhile, the Polish decision on Orka should be based on real schedules and ready solutions, not on allied gestures and media effects. The Swedish proposal has its undoubted assets – but precisely because we are talking about a project that is time-sensitive and financially sensitive, it requires the greatest care, cold distance and very hard records in a possible contract.

Read more: Another delay in Sweden. Type A26 submarines only after 2030

Whatever happens, it won't be a tragedy for me as a publisher. I have a tool I can use to make our society know, What really hides under the covers. If every citizen is to pay for this program so much money, it's ours. Polish Navy and our industry should have a real, tangible exchange of benefits from such a "deal" – not just nice slides and future promises that go far beyond our current security.

And here I have to admit something – to my own thoughts and feelings about who will eventually win Orka. Two years ago, one person told me plainly that the French would win this proceeding. And I have this condition that I remember details for years. When I put together that conversation with later signals and behaviors of some institutions, today I unfortunately have about 95% confidence that it is the country of cognac and champagne that will be declared the winner — not Sweden, which everyone is talking about now. Whether I'm right – it'll be on Friday. And how rarely – I would sincerely like to be wrong.

Decision of the Polish Government to go to historical textbooks

But no matter who is declared the winner, one thing remains certain: the rate of this decision goes far beyond my guess. This decision should therefore not result from geopolitical sympathy or from media fireworks. Each offer should have its own value, but only one will build a capacity that will not need to be saved after a few years of subsequent repair programs. The government, which today approves the selection of submarines for Poland, will enter the annals of history – as the one who saved the submarine division in Gdynia after decades of negligence and restored Poland to one of the most demanding and strategic domains of action. If Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz is quoted in the history books in twenty years, it is not for press conferences, but for the decision that provided continuity, secrecy and real impact under water.

Read also: Year-long Ork program at the finish

It is also worth remembering the truth, which is surprisingly often overlooked in this discussion: from the choice of the tenderer to the arrival of the ship in Gdynia War Port, a long road, requiring and full of risk. After the contract has been signed, the fight for a timetable, the capacity of the shipyard, the maintenance of funding by subsequent governments will only begin. Submarine ships are not formed in the rhythm of conference declarations – they are created in the silence of halls, where each month of delay translates into a loss that Polish Navy It'll feel the most painful: underwater.

Therefore, Orka should be a sovereign choice, immune to lobbying, allied gestures, and emotional cripples. Must be a decision. adult stateThat doesn't ask what others think. — I just need to survive and build strength for decades to come.

It is in front of our eyes that on Friday a decision will be announced, which will determine whether in four years' time the Submarine Division will reach the required level of capabilities, which will enable the security of the Polish Baltic Sea.